United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has made some recent statements about the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Here are some highlights:
- Exponentially growing epidemic – “The number of cases is doubling every three weeks.”
- Systems overloaded – “The disease is destroying health systems. More people are now dying in Liberia from treatable ailments and common medical conditions than from Ebola.”
- Supply chains failing – “Inflation and food prices are rising. Transport and social services are being disrupted.”
- Local government systems failing – “The leaders of the affected countries have asked the United Nations to coordinate the global response.”
The chart above shows what the number of cases doubling every three weeks looks like. This is not a prediction, just simple math. The CDC is predicting 500,000 cases by the end of January – now you can see how that math works if something doesn’t stop this epidemic.
Today we’ve got just over 5000 cases of Ebola on record. If the Secretary-General’s math is right, then by mid-April 2015 we could see over 5,000,000 cases unless something happens that shuts down the exponential growth rate.
More Important Than The Math
It’s also important to point out that Ebola is not causing the destabilizing of West Africa. It’s the fear of Ebola that’s causing all the other impacts to supply chains and rule of law.
But hope can being order too. Maybe the UN can bring some hope with their efforts too and help avert exponential increases in fear.
Those of us living in unaffected areas might want to take note of this factor too. Hope can be more powerful than fear and give us the strength to ride through any storm. So take the opportunity now and build some hope by educating yourself and preparing for the possibility of destabilization.